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Projected CVE publications
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Model performance
Ranked by MASE over rolling forecast origins. The verdict compares each model against the best naive baseline scored in the same run — a model that cannot beat it is not earning its place.
Forecast vs published
How the selected model scored against what actually landed, month by month.
| Month | Published | Forecast | Error | Percent error | Grade |
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Methodology & calibration
Every accuracy figure here comes from the same pipeline that produced the forecast above, scored across rolling forecast origins rather than a single one.